The imo the odds of a claim
I'll happily switch to you if I feel like Moon's claim gains legitimacy. I don't think I read you well but you're setting off all kinds of flags for me this game.
This is shady shade-throwing shadeballz af. You know I get lost in mechanics and like solving puzzle games and I wouldn't be trying to fish for this info.
This is true. Side note, why are we assuming actions are soft? Certainly could be but if it's not stated in the rules I won't assume it.
Not yet, but there are definitely solid inferences that can be made. Ie, we know 2/3 mafia roles (blocker and goon). We know that if there's a mafia watcher then they know 100% there's a doctor, so we're less likely playing column A or row 2. We also know that at this point mafia can't know 100% that there isn't a town doctor unless actions are loud and they have info from someone acting on them. We also know the only setups without a town doctor are Columns B and C or rows 3 or 4. So more than likely there is an odd night doctor.
If Moon is a wolf going down and pack wants to eliminate a PR, doctor is their best bet at a counter claim. If no one counterclaims, then Moon can potentially coast. If someone does, they lose a wolf (possibly goon) but also take down a PR. If wolves are trying to survive with an untaken PR, then doctor claim probably wasn't a great choice. Other way to look at it though is that town doc flip also keeps the wolf PRs more hidden, as it has the most combinations for game set up. So in wolfy Moon world I think it just depends on how worried they would be that she would be going down. If they really thought she was screwed then claiming doc gives the best chance of finding a PR while also hiding their roles. However, it's also the PR claim at greatest risk of getting counterclaimed as there's a 60% chance of town doctor being present in the game while every other role only has a 40% chance independently.
