Welcome to the forums.
Since it is your first post, we know nothing about your fit with the schools. I'm worried you are relying on public articles about financial aid for undergraduate programs and applying those lessons to medical school financial aid. That's not exactly how it works.
The two top-20 schools probably know of each other and have had experience with those accepted to both schools. They may also have experience with past applicants from your state where those applicants had an in-state offer, and maybe they could match your in-state tuition.
It also depends a lot on the economy and how much they have allotted for scholarships based on the endowment payouts. You must show mission fit or fulfill specific conditions that are assigned for certain scholarships. With the SFFA SCOTUS decision and depending on the state legislatures, awarding scholarships based on race/ethnicity may be subject to a lot of scrutiny.
With FAFSA getting messed up, you may not get "good" financial aid offers until later in time. You should figure out your preferences now and determine what it would take to shift your ranking.