Baller hospitalists...

[Splenda88]

Any hospitalist here making >500k/yr. Can you share how you are able to double the average salary (# of hours per wk, $/hr, RVU or incentive bonus, etc...).

---

Members don't see this ad.

 

[DrMetal]

....ahh hell I thought you meant Lakers fans.

 

[disorder]

Any hospitalist here making >500k/yr. Can you share how you are able to double the average salary (# of hours per wk, $/hr, RVU or incentive bonus, etc...).

Work nights.
Work in an undesirable part of america.

 

[DrMetal]

I've seen people over bill a lot too, if they paid via productivity. Everything become sepsis, everything is critical care, tobacco cessation counseling every day, etc etc. It can get very shady, I'd avoid the temptation. Supposedly you can get audited by CMS.

There's a virtual cap to what you can make as a hospitalist. Even if you were the nighthawk in Billings, Montana, making $2K/shift, you'd have to work at least 250 shifts/year or 20 shifts per month to clear over $500K. I guess it can be done.

 

[disorder]

I've seen people over bill a lot too, if they paid via productivity. Everything become sepsis, everything is critical care, tobacco cessation counseling every day, etc etc. It can get very shady, I'd avoid the temptation. Supposedly you can get audited by CMS.

There's a virtual cap to what you can make as a hospitalist. Even if you were the nighthawk in Billings, Montana, making $2K/shift, you'd have to work at least 250 shifts/year or 20 shifts per month to clear over $500K. I guess it can be done.

I will add to this. Back in the day as an intensivist (ICU + step down), I would make a ~$1500 base + RVU production. I did my own honest billing. I would make $2-3k a shift depending on number of admissions, acuity, and procedures. This was also in a desirable city on a coast.

 

[DrMetal]

I will add to this. Back in the day as an intensivist (ICU + step down), I would make a ~$1500 base + RVU production. I did my own honest billing. I would make $2-3k a shift depending on number of admissions, acuity, and procedures. This was also in a desirable city on a coast.

It's ok to bill 'critical care' if you're an intensivist! Is it ok to bill critical care when you're a hospitalist? I've seen this done in open ICUs. The intensivist bills CC, the hospitalist bills CC, the consultants bill CC, even the janitor is in on the action!

 

[grt398]

Not sure about 500k but I definitely knew a hospitalist in the ~$400-450k who did it working ~20 shifts/month, mostly nights, 8-10 of which were in a "good" area and the remainder were a 6+ hour drive away in a rural hospital where they were the only person in house at night and responsible for all airways/lines/vents etc; not sure most IM people coming out of residency would either want or be comfortable with that kind of setup.

 

[bronx43]

Working yourself to death in pursuit of 500k is not what I would describe as baller, tbh.
Work smart, not hard.

 

[tantacles]

Not sure about 500k but I definitely knew a hospitalist in the ~$400-450k who did it working ~20 shifts/month, mostly nights, 8-10 of which were in a "good" area and the remainder were a 6+ hour drive away in a rural hospital where they were the only person in house at night and responsible for all airways/lines/vents etc; not sure most IM people coming out of residency would either want or be comfortable with that kind of setup.

cefpodoxime on Reddit.

 

[Splenda88]

Not sure about 500k but I definitely knew a hospitalist in the ~$400-450k who did it working ~20 shifts/month, mostly nights, 8-10 of which were in a "good" area and the remainder were a 6+ hour drive away in a rural hospital where they were the only person in house at night and responsible for all airways/lines/vents etc; not sure most IM people coming out of residency would either want or be comfortable with that kind of setup.

Yeah... a few people in my class are great with central and a-lines. These are the people who love to do procedure. Most of us would not be comfortable with that kind of setup. We also do not intubate, so rural hospital is a no-no for me.

 

[tantacles]

Yeah... a few people in my class are great with central and a-lines. These are the people who love to do procedure. Most of us would not be comfortable with that kind of setup. We also do not intubate, so rural hospital is a no-no for me.

This was one of my considerations too. Love lines, don't particularly want to be responsible for airways.

 

[Raryn]

cefpodoxime on Reddit.

Don't forget he also supposedly makes 250% returns while day trading on margin. I don't necessarily believe everything I read on Reddit, but he's probably on the "take with an even larger grain of salt" part of the spectrum.

 

[thumbz]

My partner makes $400k/yr working 120 days and 70 nights. This is factoring in bonuses. If he was feeling particularly like flogging himself he could pick up another 50 shifts and hit $500. Personally I don't think it's worth it.

We are not RVU based, so no creative billing going on over here.

 

[tantacles]

Don't forget he also supposedly makes 250% returns while day trading on margin. I don't necessarily believe everything I read on Reddit, but he's probably on the "take with an even larger grain of salt" part of the spectrum.

oh, he’s definitely not completely reliable. But if you want to talk to someone who at least claims to make $600,000 on his w2 yearly, he’d be the one!

 

[bobow98]

Working yourself to death in pursuit of 500k is not what I would describe as baller, tbh.
Work smart, not hard.

What surprises you most about humanity?

“Man.
Because he sacrifices his health in order to make money.
Then he sacrifices money to recuperate his health.
And then he is so anxious about the future that he does not enjoy the present;
the result being that he does not live in the present or the future;
he lives as if he is never going to die, and then dies having never really lived.”

Dalai Lama


YOLO

 

[blue.jay]

What surprises you most about humanity?

“Man.
Because he sacrifices his health in order to make money.
Then he sacrifices money to recuperate his health.
And then he is so anxious about the future that he does not enjoy the present;
the result being that he does not live in the present or the future;
he lives as if he is never going to die, and then dies having never really lived.”

Dalai Lama


YOLO

This is the hard truth. It's sad that we are all running behind money. Everyday we see lowly paid pediatricians and palliative care specialist satisfied in their job (doesn't mean they don't desire more money) and then you see highly paid surgical specialists with a short temper (makes you wonder how >500k salary doesn't mean happiness).

When we all die (which we do) we can't take our wealth with us and the only thing which matters in the last few minutes of our life is reflecting on our relationships and sweet memories.

 

[MediMike]

This is the hard truth. It's sad that we are all running behind money. Everyday we see lowly paid pediatricians and palliative care specialist satisfied in their job (doesn't mean they don't desire more money) and then you see highly laid surgical specialists which such a short temper (makes you wonder how >500k salary doesn't mean happiness).

When we all die (which we do) we can't take our wealth with us and the only thing which matters in the last few minutes of our life is reflecting on our relationships and sweet memories.

...do they get laid that much more than the other specialties?

 

[bobow98]

...do they get laid that much more than the other specialties?

If they got laid q8hrs prn they'd probably be the nicest people in the hospital.

 

[DrMetal]

...do they get laid that much more than the other specialties?

Sure, if you pay for it and tip well. And I'm not a purist: it should count if you're spending your hard-earned money.

 

[Raryn]

If they got laid q8hrs prn they'd probably be the nicest people in the hospital.

Imagine putting *that* nursing order in.

 

[bobow98]

Imagine putting *that* nursing order in.

About the only hospital benefit that was worthwhile in residency.

 

[TraderDoc]

Don't forget he also supposedly makes 250% returns while day trading on margin. I don't necessarily believe everything I read on Reddit, but he's probably on the "take with an even larger grain of salt" part of the spectrum.

LOL I figured someone would mention Cefpodoxime. I too am up tremendously this year, > 200% YTD. But no way in hell I'm investing with margin. Truth is everyone and their mother is making a killing in the market this year with Fed injecting trillion after trillion into the market. 2021 and after that will be a brutal wake up call for every newbie trader/investor that thinks they've mastered the market in a matter of months. Long time trader friends of mine said same thing happened in 2008, tons of people thrived from the crash, but fast forward 1-2 years and many new traders blew out all of their accounts.

In regards to working as a hospitalist. I did > $500K in 2019, working just little over 300 shifts i think, tons of doubles and lots of evenings. I'm relatively fresh out of residency and wanted to see my limit, and that was about it. Slowed down tons this year, and quality of life definitely has improved. Won't plan on working that hard ever again.

 

[MedicineZ0Z]

This is the hard truth. It's sad that we are all running behind money. Everyday we see lowly paid pediatricians and palliative care specialist satisfied in their job (doesn't mean they don't desire more money) and then you see highly laid surgical specialists which such a short temper (makes you wonder how >500k salary doesn't mean happiness).

When we all die (which we do) we can't take our wealth with us and the only thing which matters in the last few minutes of our life is reflecting on our relationships and sweet memories.

Making the money is one thing. You need to actually spend it too.

...do they get laid that much more than the other specialties?

They could literally afford to! Sugar daddying is very mainstream in any city that has a big college.

 

[wamcp]

LOL I figured someone would mention Cefpodoxime. I too am up tremendously this year, > 200% YTD. But no way in hell I'm investing with margin. Truth is everyone and their mother is making a killing in the market this year with Fed injecting trillion after trillion into the market. 2021 and after that will be a brutal wake up call for every newbie trader/investor that thinks they've mastered the market in a matter of months. Long time trader friends of mine said same thing happened in 2008, tons of people thrived from the crash, but fast forward 1-2 years and many new traders blew out all of their accounts.

In regards to working as a hospitalist. I did > $500K in 2019, working just little over 300 shifts i think, tons of doubles and lots of evenings. I'm relatively fresh out of residency and wanted to see my limit, and that was about it. Slowed down tons this year, and quality of life definitely has improved. Won't plan on working that hard ever again.

You don’t understand margin trading.

margin doesn’t mean you HAVE to leverage up or take on more risk than your cash is worth.

margin accounts allow you infinite trades in a single trading day while cash accounts limits you to settlement (wait 2 business days per buy and sell).

margin accounts are a hugely beneficial trading tool that gives you flexibility

 

[wamcp]

oh, he’s definitely not completely reliable. But if you want to talk to someone who at least claims to make $600,000 on his w2 yearly, he’d be the one!

I’m the same cefpodoxime guy. Why is it not believable?

 

[end stage fibro]

The bittersweet truth of being a hospitalist is that there is no secret sauce:

♪♫You want a hot body? You want a Bugatti?
You want a Maserati? You better work b**ch ♪♫

You can be the best hospitalist in the world- no one is gonna fly cross country to see you. You have no patients to leverage against the local hospital corp. Your billing is a pittance compared to ortho bros and CT surg. Hell, as I type this, Chrome's dictionary doesn't even recognize the word hospitalist as evidenced by the bright red squiggly line, underscoring both the word and my point. The attendant "anonymity" (pt's dont consider me their doctor, treat em and street em mentality, people don't ask follow up questions at social gatherings) is something I consider an advantage. UpToDate doesn't have an article on making money, so I will teach you how to make >500k with the hospitalist's 2nd best friend: the algorithm.

This is the way.

As a rule, it is easier to cut expenses than to generate profit (this sums up MBA school and explains shortstaffing). This leads to another algorithm:

Finally, the above post illustrates 1 final point: you will be asked to do uncompensated work. If you are a slurper like i aspire to be, this is the name of the game. Otherwise, I suggest you adapt a more F.Y.P.M approach. If neither slurper nor FYPM mean anything to you, you have remedial reading and watching to do before your next didactic.

edit: forgot to say, assuming infinite resources (that is, shifts and patients to be seen), you can titrate your workload to your desired salary. There is no free lunch in hospital medicine. Figure out how much you get paid per patient, then solve this formula: 500,000/$ =P, where is $ is dollars per encounter and P is how many encounters needed. that's how you make 500k. night stipends and such alter P.

 

[CCM-MD]

Despite having worked in permanent and locum settings in the NE, Midwest, and South, I have yet to have the pleasure of knowing/meeting a hospitalist that makes >500k. Maybe they all spend their time working and posting on SDN.

Don’t believe everything you read online.

 

[Osteoth]

The bittersweet truth of being a hospitalist is that there is no secret sauce:

♪♫You want a hot body? You want a Bugatti?
You want a Maserati? You better work b**ch ♪♫

You can be the best hospitalist in the world- no one is gonna fly cross country to see you. You have no patients to leverage against the local hospital corp. Your billing is a pittance compared to ortho bros and CT surg. Hell, as I type this, Chrome's dictionary doesn't even recognize the word hospitalist as evidenced by the bright red squiggly line, underscoring both the word and my point. The attendant "anonymity" (pt's dont consider me their doctor, treat em and street em mentality, people don't ask follow up questions at social gatherings) is something I consider an advantage. UpToDate doesn't have an article on making money, so I will teach you how to make >500k with the hospitalist's 2nd best friend: the algorithm.

View attachment 313195

This is the way.

As a rule, it is easier to cut expenses than to generate profit (this sums up MBA school and explains shortstaffing). This leads to another algorithm:

View attachment 313197


Finally, the above post illustrates 1 final point: you will be asked to do uncompensated work. If you are a slurper like i aspire to be, this is the name of the game. Otherwise, I suggest you adapt a more F.Y.P.M approach. If neither slurper nor FYPM mean anything to you, you have remedial reading and watching to do before your next didactic.

edit: forgot to say, assuming infinite resources (that is, shifts and patients to be seen), you can titrate your workload to your desired salary. There is no free lunch in hospital medicine. Figure out how much you get paid per patient, then solve this formula: 500,000/$ =P, where is $ is dollars per encounter and P is how many encounters needed. that's how you make 500k. night stipends and such alter P.

Legit laughed out loud

 

[tantacles]

I’m the same cefpodoxime guy. Why is it not believable?

Easy! Because it’s quite a few standard deviations from the mean, and that makes it inherently difficult to believe. Does that mean it’s not real? No. But I think some skepticism is healthy.

 

[chessknt]

I know when I was a hospitalist I made 8k/shift, net 750k after taxes in 6 months, turned that in to 56MM in the stock market and bitcoin, and had time to bang every good looking nurse and dietitian in the hospital 3x but decided that I wanted to go back to fellowship and make less money because balling that hard is something people only do on reddit and I was too cool for that.

 

[TraderDoc]

You don’t understand margin trading.

margin doesn’t mean you HAVE to leverage up or take on more risk than your cash is worth.

margin accounts allow you infinite trades in a single trading day while cash accounts limits you to settlement (wait 2 business days per buy and sell).

margin accounts are a hugely beneficial trading tool that gives you flexibility

Sorry i should have been clearer. My trading account is a margin account. What i meant is that i don't leverage up to take more risk than what my account worth in cash like you said. I'm just saying I've experienced plenty of people blowing up accounts being way over leveraged using margin funds, especially those who do options trading. Margin "account" absolutely is a huge beneficial trading tool I agree.

 

[bobow98]

Sorry i should have been clearer. My trading account is a margin account. What i meant is that i don't leverage up to take more risk than what my account worth in cash like you said. I'm just saying I've experienced plenty of people blowing up accounts being way over leveraged using margin funds, especially those who do options trading. Margin "account" absolutely is a huge beneficial trading tool I agree.

Sir, this is a SDN thread.

 

[wamcp]

Easy! Because it’s quite a few standard deviations from the mean, and that makes it inherently difficult to believe. Does that mean it’s not real? No. But I think some skepticism is healthy.

I concede, you are right to be skeptical. What I make as a hospitalist and from trading is indeed standards of deviation above the norm. I had replied to you earlier with pics of my paystubs proving the authenticity but deleted it since it becomes too easy to figure out where I work.

When I become truly financially independent or retire I will have no qualms returning to this very thread and posting it all to bare. Hopefully will achieve this in a few years.

 

[tantacles]

I concede, you are right to be skeptical. What I make as a hospitalist and from trading is indeed standards of deviation above the norm. I had replied to you earlier with pics of my paystubs proving the authenticity but deleted it since it becomes too easy to figure out where I work.

When I become truly financially independent or retire I will have no qualms returning to this very thread and posting it all to bare. Hopefully will achieve this in a few years.

I mean, it really doesn't matter! I don't need verification! It's the Internet, man. Everyone should be skeptical of literally everything everyone else says.

 

[Splenda88]

The stock market is on fire. Wish I was already an attending.

 

[wamcp]

250% return is not unfathomable especially if one has been trading AAPL, AMD, and TSLA options the past few years.

I have >200% returns in my tax deferred accounts. I only started active trade less than a year ago (see my roth ira for example

And how can I possibly trade with margin, let alone options in a 401k, HSA account? Can’t do it in my IRA either.

My gains were not accrued via options gambling.

 

[Splenda88]

I have >200% returns in my tax deferred accounts. I only started active trade less than a year ago (see my roth ira for example

And how can I possibly trade with margin, let alone options in a 401k, HSA account? Can’t do it in my IRA either.

My gains were not accrued via options gambling.

Wow... Medicine will be a side gig for you.

 

[bobow98]

Thank god he doesn't use robinhood.

 

[NITRAS]

Before COVID, probably two or three in our group made that kind of money.

Our nocturnist are 1 on, 2 off. One was 2 FTE.
One of our day docs used to be 1 FTE days, 0.5 nights, worked a SNF that was affiliated, director of said SNF. He has since dropped the 0.5 FTE nights as his wife is now a fellow and they have a couple young kids.
Another one of our day guys is the local pusher of pharma and works/travels/frequently while he is off and sets up lunches while on. His wife is a rep. . . So he has connections.

I could get pretty close to $400k if I worked at it (again before COVID). We will see how the next bit works out.

 

[wamcp]

Wow... Medicine will be a side gig for you.

That is definitely the goal. Investment gains have exceeded my base+moonlighting income since I started active trading october last year.

 

[bobow98]

Before COVID, probably two or three in our group made that kind of money.

Our nocturnist are 1 on, 2 off. One was 2 FTE.
One of our day docs used to be 1 FTE days, 0.5 nights, worked a SNF that was affiliated, director of said SNF. He has since dropped the 0.5 FTE nights as his wife is now a fellow and they have a couple young kids.
Another one of our day guys is the local pusher of pharma and works/travels/frequently while he is off and sets up lunches while on. His wife is a rep. . . So he has connections.

I could get pretty close to $400k if I worked at it (again before COVID). We will see how the next bit works out.

What kind of meds do IM docs push? Pain?

 

[Raryn]

What kind of meds do IM docs push? Pain?

Literally anything. Inhalers. Diabetes medicine. Psych drugs. Etc.

You could go around and give talks to other internists if you found a drug company to sponsor you to talk about your experiences with any given drug.

 

[Splenda88]

That is definitely the goal. Investment gains have exceeded my base+moonlighting income since I started active trading october last year.

Can you tell us your secret?

Do you invest on high yield dividend stock?

 

[TraderDoc]

Put $50K into OSTK (overstock) in March and you can go part time today off your 40x return in 5 months. Markets are efficient right now.
But we'll get to see trading back to normal in the next 1-2 years.
Everyone is winning right now in the market, this is not sustainable.
Invest smart, long game always wins, manage risk. Invest in some safe ETFs, diversify your portfolio.
good luck to all investors
And screw Teladoc for merging with my best investment LVGO (livongo).
For the record, I am now a teladoc investor starting today.

 

[Splenda88]

Literally anything. Inhalers. Diabetes medicine. Psych drugs. Etc.

You could go around and give talks to other internists if you found a drug company to sponsor you to talk about your experiences with any given drug.

That's kind of being a pimp for Big Pharma... I can't envision any physician doing that.

 

[deleted980918]

What’s so magical about 500k?

With the amount of $$$ pumped by the Fed, 500k is gonna be the new “6 figure salary”.

 

[wamcp]

Can you tell us your secret?

Do you invest on high yield dividend stock?

No secret.

in these non-margin tax deferred accounts the real way to beat the market is stock picking. I also day traded leveraged ETFs like UPRO or TQQQ after I recognized the bottom was in late March, due to heavily oversold conditions but not something I would do in a “regular” market.

Before the crash in late Feb, I was successful with small-mid cap biotech stock picking and was beating bull market index returns handily ; having a MD background helped immensely. I remember picks like AUPH, KRTX, CVM, BTAI that were hugely profitable swing trades. I would never recommend holding these things “long term”. I could write a huge lengthy post on my experience with biotech.

Once the crash occurred, I shifted my thinking towards picking stocks that would benefit most from the pandemic. Things like SaaS/online (MSFT, AMZN, FSLY, CRWD, DDOG etc), ecommerce (SQ, STNE, ADYEY), clorox stock (CLX), mask producing company (APT), online education stocks (LRN, CHGG) They were excellent swing trades. As mentioned above, riding gains on TQQQ was very profitable on capturing the shift to tech sector.

However I believe the most important guiding principle that gave the guts to buy and trade at the bottom of the crash was understanding and recognizing macro/market factors. As such I did not emotionally freeze or panic sell from seeing constant barrage of news media headlines highlighting this as a great depression or permabears calling a fake bulltrap rally. Having a MD degree was extremely helpful in predicting the fundamentals of the COVID virus too.

On my reddit account (Not same username as on sdn) you can look at my history and find the April 6 or so post I made detailing my thoughts analyzing historical market data and current events that would predict a swift V shape, bull market recovery and calling the bottom was late March accurately.

In any case, we are now way past the absolute lifetime of an opportunity in the markets. The big easy profits if you recognized the crash and bottom of 2020, is over. It was a time like 2009 that has now passed (not that i had any money as a broke college student back then anyway). I do believe money will be harder and take longer to make moving forward. I am now focused on stock picking hypergrowth companies (massive TAM, huge YoY revenue growth, great management teams) and trying to find attractive entry points on them.

Examples

LVGO was huge profit for me before the merger this week.

SE was great although i believe now overvalued on its runup to earnings this month

ETSY is continuing to prove to be a monster grower in its market space

 

[wamcp]

No secret.

in these non-margin tax deferred accounts the real way to beat the market is stock picking. I also day traded leveraged ETFs like UPRO or TQQQ after I recognized the bottom was in late March, due to heavily oversold conditions but not something I would do in a “regular” market.

Before the crash in late Feb, I was successful with small-mid cap biotech stock picking and was beating bull market index returns handily ; having a MD background helped immensely. I remember picks like AUPH, KRTX, CVM, BTAI that were hugely profitable swing trades. I would never recommend holding these things “long term”. I could write a huge lengthy post on my experience with biotech.

Once the crash occurred, I shifted my thinking towards picking stocks that would benefit most from the pandemic. Things like SaaS, ecommerce, clorox stock, mask producing companies. They were excellent swing trades. As mentioned above, riding gains on TQQQ was very profitable on capturing the shift to tech sector.

However I believe the most important guiding principle that gave the guts to buy and trade at the bottom of the crash was understanding and recognizing macro/market factors. Having a MD degree was extremely helpful in predicting the fundamentals of the COVID virus too.

On my reddit account (Not same username as on sdn) you can look at my history and find the April 6 or so post I made detailing my thoughts analyzing historical market data and current events that would predict a swift V shape, bull market recovery and calling the bottom was late March accurately.

In any case, we are now way past the absolute lifetime of an opportunity in the markets. The big easy profits if you recognized the crash and bottom of 2020, is over. It was a time like 2009 that has now passed (not that i had any money as a broke college student back then anyway). I do believe money will be harder and take longer to make moving forward. I am now focused on stock picking hypergrowth companies (massive TAM, huge YoY revenue growth, great management teams) and trying to find attractive entry points on them.

Examples

LVGO was huge profit for me before the merger this week.

SE was great although i believe now overvalued on its runup to earnings this month

ETSY is continuing to prove to be a monster grower in its market space

I am also pasting a post I created on another website thread with much of the content stolen from a very insightful twitter thread. I remind myself of this every day - simple stuff but extremely powerful and true and helps me avoid trying investing or panic selling by way of emotions, fear, or FOMO:

The following is taken from the most important twitter thread an investor could ever come across (links at bottom):
Druckenmiller's first mentor, Speros Drelles, would often tell him that "60 million Frenchman can't be wrong." Here's a thread on what that means and how to know when you should listen to or ignore the "Frenchman" (market):
Drelles was teaching the young Druck about the wisdom of the market, which is based on the idea that the crowd is collectively smarter than any one individual. This collective intelligence was first stumbled upon by the late great statistician, Francis Galton, who in 1906 observed a competition at a local fair where approx. 800 people tried to guess the weight of an ox. To his surprise, the avg of all the guesses was 1,197lbs. The real weight... 1,198lbs.
Countless studies have been done since. All show similar results. Crowd is better than any individual. Scott Page, in his book "The Difference", lays out the "diversity prediction theorem" to explain how this works and what variables are needed to make a crowd wise.
The theorem states that: Collective error = avg individual error - prediction diversity
The implications of this are 3-fold:
1. A diverse crowd will always predict more accurately than the avg individual
2. A crowd is often smarter than even the best of its individuals
3. Collective predictive ability is equal parts accuracy & diversity
Takeaway: Crowds are smarter than any single person, as long as there's a diversity of opinion.This theorem is based on math and is always true.
To take this back to markets. Here's Soros explaining why it's KEY to know when to be a part of the "herd" (ie, follow the trend) and when to disengage & be a contrarian:

Being so critical, I am often considered a contrarian. But I am very cautious about going against the herd; I am liable to be trampled on. Most of the time I am a trend follower, but all the time I am aware that I am a member of a herd and I am on the lookout for inflection points. I watch out for telltale signs that a trend may be exhausted. Then I disengage from the herd and look for a different investment thesis. Or, if I think the trend has been carried to excess, I may probe going against it. Most of the time we are punished if we go against the trend. Only at an inflection point are we rewarded.

You want to be a trend follower when there's a lot of people saying "this move makes NO SENSE" and a contrarian when people are saying "this makes so much sense". This is why a bull climbs a wall of worry & a bear falls down the stairs of hope. Trends are driven by (dis)belief
But... and this is important. You ONLY want to be a contrarian once the tape STOPS confirming the consensus narrative. Reading the sentiment tea leaves is as much an art as it is a science. And when in doubt, defer to the market.
Blake LeBaron, an economist, modeled how this diverse opinion/wise crowd & consensus/dumb crowd works in markets to create trends and crashes. Here's his paper https://t.co/kE0sQmMnTh?amp=1
He built a computer model and imbued "agents" with decision-making rules such as: make money, try not to lose money, don't underperform the average for long periods etc...
What he found was that "During the run-up to a crash, population diversity falls. Agents begin to use very similar trading strategies as their common good performance begins to reinforce. This makes the population brittle. Traders have a hard time finding anyone to sell to in a falling market since everyone else is following very similar strategies." This confirms Page's "diversity" theorem and explains the mechanics of why markets trend and revert, or move in sine waves.
Trends that "make no sense" = robust. Trends that become consensus = fragile. Soros thought of this phenomenon as high and low "distortion regimes". High distortion regimes = when price & sentiment form a reflexive loop, which then creates a budding consensus.
Low distortion = diverse opinion. This price/sentiment loop, or what I call the "Narrative Pendulum" becomes obvious once you learn to look for it. Example, watch this video I clipped together last year that shows the dramatic shift in the dominant narrative that occurred in just two-weeks time
Price drives sentiment which drives price, ad Infinium. And THERE IS NO "SMART-MONEY" other than the mrkt itself. All of us are part of the "DUMB MONEY" crowd. The 2 "Bond Kings" calling the end of the bond bull at the exact bottom in 18' is case in point. THIS GAME IS HARD
So that's what Drelles meant & also what makes Druckenmiller so good. He learned early on to listen and respect the market, to harness the wisdom of the crowds, and to only step in to fade a trend once a consensus was clear & the tape no longer confirmed it.
https://operators.macro-ops.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/ExplainingWisdom-1-1.pdf

You want to be a trend follower when there's a lot of people saying "this move makes NO SENSE" and a contrarian when people are saying "this makes so much sense". This is why a bull climbs a wall of worry & a bear falls down the stairs of hope. Trends are driven by (dis)belief

“This right here - if you followed this logic, you would have bought hard towards the bottom in 2009 and also during the last couple months in 2020. Think about all the majority users here only 60 some days ago heavily downvoting those saying we already hit bottom and that we were in a new bull market because they just could not believe or understand the trend of the market rising.

Now think about now. Think about the terrible coronavirus news, states are closing up again, the continued bad economic news "worse than the great depression", and many pundits are arguing the markets are "disconnected" and "have to drop". But the markets are not falling. Buying now is an obviously correct move based on the above theorems - follow the trend driven by disbelief.”

 

[Splenda88]

@wamcp

Any Vanguard ETFs on your portfolio...

 

[wamcp]

@wamcp

Any Vanguard ETFs on your portfolio...

No. I’m not 60, I’m 30 and looking for highest growth possible. Vanguard won’t ever let you retire in several years- only through decades