Probably better posted in the MD students forum where folks like @NotAProgDirector can help you more.
This is potentially a Hail Mary. You’ve already committed to a program, so you need to prove, and I quote, “unanticipated serious and extreme hardship, change of specialty, or ineligibility” for a waiver. You’re otherwise locked into your SOAP spot. Sorry that apparently committing to ortho didn’t work and you didn’t get something that made you happy on the back end. I believe I told you in another thread that a research position would be a good move but a 1-3 year gap, so I’m glad you understand the stakes.
Don’t know what waiver percentages are, but maybe you’ve got a shot if all your stars align. Your potential next application is already a little tough with the ortho mishap, then a waiver. Who’s to say you won’t flake on another adventure?
I agree that it's unclear whether you'll get a waiver for this. I expect not, given the timing. But I could be wrong.
A ban from the NRMP match will not allow you to get a prelim year for ophthal.
Although your school may have pressured you to do something, they can't force you to take a spot in SOAP. If they actually forced you in some way, then that might be the best option to try to undo it.
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