sadly if you DCA'd the first of the month, you'd only be up 3%we're up 12% YTD still..
sadly if you DCA'd the first of the month, you'd only be up 3%we're up 12% YTD still..
Yes, but don't shoot the messenger; in my non-professional advice non-soliciting opinion... I don't see bottom around the corner. Day one of being chucked out the window to me looks like yesterday. I guess we'll see if it has legs or not.we're up 12% YTD still..
Any thoughts on Fibronacci retracements? At first consideration years ago, seemed like hocus pocus to me. Then, i warmed to the idea that they become self-fulfilling if enough people use them. Now, the older, more seasoned me has seen enough that i can't explain to entertain the possibility that there is some underlying mathematical order to this universe that I am unfamiliar with.What's interesting is the same patterns that exist long range exist on other levels right down to day charts day traders use. The longer more established trends trump the shorter trends... of course until they don't haha.
They say, "The trend is your friend."
I add, "until it ends."
Charts are another tool like a CBC and CXR. They don't tell you everything but are helpful in the whole picture. For me it's math porn. Fascinates me, even if only looking backwards, how the movements move so magically repetitively. I'm like, how in f--- did it know to do that.
These bold predictions have never been wrong before…Yes, but don't shoot the messenger; in my non-professional advice non-soliciting opinion... I don't see bottom around the corner. Day one of being chucked out the window to me looks like yesterday. I guess we'll see if it has legs or not.
it gets looked at. use all the data you can get, not just 1. there are absolutely patterns in stocks, due to whatever reason, human behavior/psychology or whatever. tons of stat/math phds go to hedge funds to make big bucks off these patternsAny thoughts on Fibronacci retracements? At first consideration years ago, seemed like hocus pocus to me. Then, i warmed to the idea that they become self-fulfilling if enough people use them. Now, the older, more seasoned me has seen enough that i can't explain to entertain the possibility that there is some underlying mathematical order to this universe that I am unfamiliar with.
What say...is it a thing, or are Fibronacci lines the Kardashians of trading?
Hedge funds make big money convincing us dopes they “see the patterns”. That, and insider trading and Ponzi schemes.i think it will get rocky .
it gets looked at. use all the data you can get, not just 1. there are absolutely patterns in stocks, due to whatever reason, human behavior/psychology or whatever. tons of stat/math phds go to hedge funds to make big bucks off these patterns
Yeah. It’s the Kobayashi Maru for us, but they cheat.Hedge funds make big money convincing us dopes they “see the patterns”. That, and insider trading and Ponzi schemes.
All predictions can be wrong. It's probability. I'm my opinion looking at everything it looks like selling pressure is going to be overwhelming for a while, particularly the way it squashed any boost after Powell spoke. If you want a guarantee buy a toaster.These bold predictions have never been wrong before…
Exactly. It is DEFINITELY not the self fulfilling option. Typical doctors with typically 120 IQs argue with all their heart that charts are all voodoo, so what's the possibility the masses of average people could all work in unison to create this something that incredibly complex that a world of Elon Musk couldn't intentionally create? Zero. Positively zero chance. They are the exact reason I explained earlier that charts are much dirtier and more difficult to interpret.Any thoughts on Fibronacci retracements? At first consideration years ago, seemed like hocus pocus to me. Then, i warmed to the idea that they become self-fulfilling if enough people use them. Now, the older, more seasoned me has seen enough that i can't explain to entertain the possibility that there is some underlying mathematical order to this universe that I am unfamiliar with.
What say...is it a thing, or are Fibronacci lines the Kardashians of trading?
You are taking a cause and claiming that its direct effects blow your mind when they occur. Wow. Not surprising AT ALL.Exactly. It is DEFINITELY not the self fulfilling option. Typical doctors with typically 120 IQs argue with all their heart that charts are all voodoo, so what's the possibility the masses of average people could all work in unison to create this something that incredibly complex that a world of Elon Musk couldn't intentionally create? Zero. Positively zero chance. They are the exact reason I explained earlier that charts are much dirtier and more difficult to interpret.
It is truly some sort of mathematical order based on the sheep-like behavior of humans, but how it can line up so perfectly I just can't explain. For everyone that adds nothing but ignorant attacking comments, I'm not saying charts can perfectly predict, though they often do help, but you look at them, the exactness of the lines that when they fall off trend the often rush to close on the line or gap the next day perfectly to the trendline. It is universe magic.
+100 tribbles for the on point reference.Yeah. It’s the Kobayashi Maru for us, but they cheat.
Wrong analogy.+100 tribbles for the on point reference.
And what's the cause genius that has so far shown zero knowledge of anything?You are taking a cause and claiming that its direct effects blow your mind when they occur. Wow. Not surprising AT ALL.
I haven't delved much into fibronacci retracements but I figure there is some validity to it based on sheep-like repetition. I can occasionally find an old chart mirroring closely what's going on in a current stock or market and it's almost like a cheat code going forward for a while. It's crazy when you see that.Any thoughts on Fibronacci retracements? At first consideration years ago, seemed like hocus pocus to me. Then, i warmed to the idea that they become self-fulfilling if enough people use them. Now, the older, more seasoned me has seen enough that i can't explain to entertain the possibility that there is some underlying mathematical order to this universe that I am unfamiliar with.
What say...is it a thing, or are Fibronacci lines the Kardashians of trading?
Okay. Make specific claims. Quote the stocks. Put the dates that you buy and sell. We can judge actual results not your throwing out terminology that doesn’t translate into beating the market. Unless you can actually beat the market, you are just treating sdn as your personal blog to hear yourself talk.I haven't delved much into fibronacci retracements but I figure there is some validity to it based on sheep-like repetition. I can occasionally find an old chart mirroring closely what's going on in a current stock or market and it's almost like a cheat code going forward for a while. It's crazy when you see that.
Yeah I'll do that, cause I care about winning over a big baby all insecure and angry when he doesn't understand something.Okay. Make specific claims. Quote the stocks. Put the dates that you buy and sell. We can judge actual results not your throwing out terminology that doesn’t translate into beating the market. Unless you can actually beat the market, you are just treating sdn as your personal blog to hear yourself talk.
Your investment plan isn't working:Okay. Make specific claims. Quote the stocks. Put the dates that you buy and sell. We can judge actual results not your throwing out terminology that doesn’t translate into beating the market. Unless you can actually beat the market, you are just treating sdn as your personal blog to hear yourself talk.
Not that it would matter Mr Anger Management because you've learned literally nothing from what I've posted, add nothing, can't point out any incorrect statements, and bore the bleep out of me with the constant unprovoked attacks, harassment, and stalking, but here:Okay. Make specific claims. Quote the stocks. Put the dates that you buy and sell. We can judge actual results not your throwing out terminology that doesn’t translate into beating the market. Unless you can actually beat the market, you are just treating sdn as your personal blog to hear yourself talk.
Here's another call for you in print:Okay. Make specific claims. Quote the stocks. Put the dates that you buy and sell. We can judge actual results not your throwing out terminology that doesn’t translate into beating the market. Unless you can actually beat the market, you are just treating sdn as your personal blog to hear yourself talk.
Everyone here knows I own a good portion of gold. Hasn't done much, up and down past year or two. Still near all time highs. Are we happy and smiling now?Okay. Make specific claims. Quote the stocks. Put the dates that you buy and sell. We can judge actual results not your throwing out terminology that doesn’t translate into beating the market. Unless you can actually beat the market, you are just treating sdn as your personal blog to hear yourself talk.
Okay. Let us know when you re-invest.Not that it would matter Mr Anger Management because you've learned literally nothing from what I've posted, add nothing, can't point out any incorrect statements, and bore the bleep out of me with the constant unprovoked attacks, harassment, and stalking, but here:
Few days before Fed Powell drop over a month ago
"Sold everything."
Are we happy now?
I get it, you don't have a math brain and chart talk upsets you, but go away, have a cream soda, make a ham sandwich, just do something else other than bother me.
Correct. It's almost impossible to time both getting "in" and getting "out." You must keep the majority of your money invested at all times and weather the storms. Now, you can play with up to 20% by "guessing" about direction and sentiment. I agree that sentiment is very negative and a rally into year end is unlikely. That said, we could still end the year at 4350.Okay. Let us know when you re-invest.
My accounts are mostly spread out across several mutual funds- small cap, mid cap, S&P, Blue Chip, some international.
You spend a lot of time talking nonsense about charts but I bet you don’t get a better return than me and you definitely have higher risk. If you luck out and have a good year, you won’t be able to reproduce it long term.
I don’t care what you have to say, but I hope no young folks reading your drivel think they should start day trading. It’s foolish and bad advice.
I find getting in the more difficult point. Spotting something like getting out of the dot com bubble or 08 collapse, you can spot it if you're paying attention. After a steep drop, almost seems like, well this feels a good place to be a buyer. Just have to take a stab what looks like a good support level, though likely you don't hit it.Correct. It's almost impossible to time both getting "in" and getting "out." You must keep the majority of your money invested at all times and weather the storms. Now, you can play with up to 20% by "guessing" about direction and sentiment. I agree that sentiment is very negative and a rally into year end is unlikely. That said, we could still end the year at 4350.
My biggest concern is the huge deficit because of the need to issue huge amounts of bonds top pay for it. That's why long term rates are going up. The market wants higher returns to hold US debt and even then there aren't enough buyers. The 10 year could hit 5.5% or even 6% as investors demand more to hold US debt longer term. Typically, stocks don't do well with 10 year bonds at 5.5% or higher.
10-year Treasury yield rises to 5%, the highest level for the key rate in 16 years
The 10-year Treasury yield rose on Thursday hitting a 16-year high as investors pored over remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.www.cnbc.com
So tell us the day the market hits bottom..k, thx.
You once told me don't get emotional about stock, Gordon.Blah blah blah
You once told me don't get emotional about stock, Gordon.
The bid is back at the 4230 support level.
What do you want to do? Decide.
GREAT MOVIE!!
the big short was probably the one that was closest to reality. I also liked margin call.GREAT MOVIE!!
That and Trading Places, classic movies about the markets.
Madoff: The Monster of Wall Street.the big short was probably the one that was closest to reality. I also liked margin call.
Special place in my heart for Wolf of Wall street
Haven't watched the first two yet.the big short was probably the one that was closest to reality. I also liked margin call.
Special place in my heart for Wolf of Wall street
Mini-Madoff SBFMadoff: The Monster of Wall Street.
what software do you use for your trading?Mini-Madoff SBF
Lock him up!
I'm not really an "active" trader. The compulsive overtrading me was more like late nineties where I'd see one really good trade and then make another 20 unnecessary trades to get my fix followed by giving back anything I might have been up plus a little more.what software do you use for your trading?
Margin Call was very good on several levels, but got little publicity. A real shame in my opinion.the big short was probably the one that was closest to reality. I also liked margin call.
Special place in my heart for Wolf of Wall street
Well that didn't take long. With a strong support level and so much going on and tons of earnings this week it could be very choppy before giving way... or completely surrender without a fight. But my personal non-professional read is still the conclusion will be 4230ish (4225 whatever) has as much chance of stopping the sell off as stopping a semi with a pile of soft butter and pillows. (I'm sure everybody will remind me if that's incorrect hahaha)I think a 4225/4230 retest is a given at this point. I also believe it won't hold this time.
High Vix. Should be a lot of action.
Ok, my bad and apology for the response to you. Looking back it appears now you were actually asking a serious question 😂. I thought it was another mocking comment on here in the endless stream of it and thought you were just smudging through the whole thing. But now I see there are real questions in your post.Don’t know anything about charts but why not draw the lines like this? How do you decide how far to look back?
View attachment 377797View attachment 377798
The way they tell it here that isn't enough to pay for your kids 15+ years of private education and 4x annual family vacation to Europe without ending up being homeless on the streets.Ultimately the nice thing about being in a high-earning field is that you don’t need to strike it rich with a fortunate stock pick to have a very nice life. 60k a year in 401k = ~6M after 30 years.
I predict a continuation of nobody knowin' nothing.So last week was the best week all year (4117–>4358). Any predictions into year end?
I've posted this before but I will say it again. Dollar cost averaging is the right thing to do for most people. It takes the emotion out of investing long term.
You set your model like 80/20 or 90/10 then stay at it. For those that want to be more active investors another approach is to dollar cost average 80% and set aside 20% for market dips or bear markets. This means you put that money to work on really bad weeks or bear markets. But, you must hold your nose and actually invest the money. You decide what level to invest the remaining 20% of cash like 6% or 8% pullbacks. If at the end of the year you haven't invested the cash then this strategy isn't a good one for you.
Over the decades I have purchased a lot of blue chip stocks which have done well. I stay away from mid cap and small cap companies by buying ETFs.
My worst investments have been Chinese stocks and bank stocks. They are good for short term trades but have been terrible long term investments. I no longer buy any Chinese stocks or ETFs even if they are "cheap."
What does 2024 look like for stocks? I have no idea but I do know if you don't stay invested you will likely not do well longer term. Timing the market is almost impossible so develop a strategy which works over decades not weeks.
So last week was the best week all year (4117–>4358). Any predictions into year end?
My prediction is we get a 5-7% pullback in January or February. This is in anticipation of the "soft landing" or mild recession in 2024. I recommend you don't panic, stay invested and buy the pullback. If you don't own any bonds 2024 is a great time to buy a bond fund or bond ETF vs holding cash in a money market. I only predict 1-2 rate cuts next year but that still bodes well for bonds.S&P now 4600