This video is a joke (and made by someone who dropped out of plastic surgery residency after their intern year to sell interview prep for $299/hour). He assumes
anyone going into a speciality (i.e. not primary care) will need an extra year of research/5 years for medical school and anyone going into primary care will need 4 years of residency. Right there you can tell he is not being genuine in his analysis. This is a theme in all "you make more money as a plumber than as a physician" videos/blog posts. They make as many "small" corrections as possible for the physician numbers without outright saying they want a certain outcome.
The funniest "error" to me is that he starts his spreadsheet in 2019 with an engineer salary of $100k and then adds 3% wage growth per year, which all seems very reasonable...except. In 2030 when the engineer is making $138k/year (1.03^11), he uses the 2019 average specialist salary for the first year attending salary in 2030. If you correct for wage growth for doctors and engineers, the specialist has higher lifetime earnings by age 39 instead of by 45. If you take away the crazy assumption that all specialists take 5 years to finish medical school, it is age 38. If we use the correct effective interest rate for student loans of 3% instead of his naive 6%, you beat the engineer by age 37.
He uses an engineer salary of $100k at age 22 when the average starting engineer salary is around $60k; $100k is the average engineer salary for all ages/years of experience. Of course he uses the correct salary during residency which is the equivalent "starting salary" for medical school graduates. I will correct for this by setting a starting engineer salary of $60k that grows $10k every year while the physician is in medical school, so when the medical student starts residency, the engineer is making the average engineer salary (for all ages) at age 26. This still clearly is biased towards the engineer, but it won't help them that much in the long run.
Next, he assumes that both the engineer and physician will have their lifetime earnings invested at 7% which is...interesting. Last I checked you cannot invest your entire paycheck if you want to have a place to live and some ramen to eat. This kind of math would (sort of) make sense if he acknowledged that they will both invest/save/401k 10% of their post-tax pay, or some other set percentage.
If he did that though, he would have to acknowledge that starting at age 35ish, the physician is living the lifestyle of someone with >3x the take home income of an engineer. We will correct this by having the physician living on an engineers take home pay and investing the remaining money, with the engineer take home pay being 90% of post tax income. Or in other words, the engineer will invest 10% of their take-home pay and the physician will match the lifestyle of the engineer.
For medical school debt, I will add $50k/year @ 6% during medical school, and 3% interest with no payments during residency (REPAYE payments are income based and tiny, but they do cut the interest rate in half).
At this point, we are calculating lifetime savings/investments while living the same lifestyle after the mid 30s. And what are the result? Well quite honestly, hilarious given the premise of that video.
Lifetime savings/investments at various ages:
Age | Engineer | Physician |
25 | $33k | -$218k |
30 | $95k | -$253k |
40 | $333k | $2.1MM |
50 | $852k | $5.8MM |
60 | $1.9MM | $10.3MM |
65 | $2.7MM | $13.1MM |