How do I know if my stats are good enough?

[deleted1166273]

Saw this discussion in a recent WAMC thread and wanted to clarify some questions I had.

I reviewed the SDN Building a School List resource (very helpful), but there wasn't too much discussion on stats. How do I know what schools are realistic reaches/reasonable to apply to and which schools to avoid? Should you be at least 10th percentile or 25 percentile or >25th percentile at least?

For context, I personally have a 518/3.8. Does this mean that schools like UPenn are unreasonable to apply to since 518 is their 10th percentile or is it even stricter than that (i.e. Harvard is unreasonable since 518 is 25th percentile)?

I know that stats aren't everything by any means, but they do seem to be the limiting factor in most cases based on the advice I have seen given in the WAMC thread.

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[Medologist342]

The way I see it after reflecting on my own application for some time, if you're stats fall within the range for that school, whether it is 10th percentile or 90th percentile, then its not going end up being your GPA or MCAT that held you back, its going to be ECs. If Penn didn't admit people with 518s it wouldn't be in the stat range for the school, but you have to realize you'll just have to have make up for slightly lower stats by having better ECs or a more cohesive narrative than the 525/4.0 applicant that is in the pool too.

 

[Mr.Smile12]

Hypothetical process warning. Thanks for the SO, to the OP.

You have to understand the competitiveness of the pool. Given the limited number of available interview spots, you have to be on par with the group of applicants who get interviews. If a school gets 10,000 applications to fill a class of 100 seats, you need to be at least in the desirable 1000 applications for a strong shot at an interview. Going by numbers, you need to be in the top 10% (1000 of 10K), but holistic review asks us to dig a little deeper, say 2000 (20%). So if you think of an imperfect process, you should be in the top 20% by metrics to have a shot at the interview. Strong mission fit further allows us to expand our criteria, so maybe you need to be in the top 30% (3000) so that admissions criteria can be as open as possible to select the desired characteristics of the incoming class. After this, we start sorting by fit, and placing applicants on the @LizzyM ladder, with the ones on the highest rung/priority getting invitations.

Notice that if you are strictly going by numbers, being in the bottom 25% means your chances of an interview are that much more difficult. Our selection processes are still going to have metrics govern selection to some degree, and that is why for the best chances, the advice given is what it is... if you are outside the bottom 10th percentile for matriculant GPA, you probably need a much stronger mission fit in your application and affinity with the school. That's where Building a School List (and managing it) becomes important.

 

[gonnif]

I also tell students to know their application, and their record well enough to be comfortable with what I call their “affective” GPA. For example, if you have a study 3.8 during four years of college, you obviously have a 3.8. But what if you had a crappy freshman year then excelled the next three years at 3.9? Or are you a 3.8 student or are you actually a 3.9 and can you justify it? Medical schools will see your record year by year separated into BCPM and AO (all other) as well as total per year. They will want to see the trend and what the trend says about you.

The other question I ask, are you trying to get into a “top” medical school or in any medical school? A 3.8/518 in the aggregate has a 90% acceptance rate across all medical schools. You should be able to find a majority of schools where you fit the top 10% or 25% along with some reach schools at the low end. However, your ultimate goal is to be a doctor. While no medical school is truly a safety school, you certainly have better chances where you fit the top 25% and the mission.